drawdown recovery keeps surprising consensus on retail participation

Most blow-ups start as comfortable consensus.

The loudest story is not always the decisive one.

Put beside current chatter on “Kalshi’s Tradable Midterms Index Settles to Pyth Values,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Ignoring drawdown recovery because restaking looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.

Historically, stretches where dollar strength leads without support from rate-cut expectations invite sharper reversals.

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